![]() Once the meeting is over and everyone has had their say, the dot collector presents averages and totals and then “ rebalances” these to factor in believability. It creates an evolving assessment of each person’s “believability.” Meanwhile, the dot collector uses algorithms to progressively understand each person’s strengths and cognitive style. Periodically they have meetings about important questions, like (before 2016) “What would a Trump win look like for the economy?”Īlong with radical candor, his team uses special software called “the dot collector.” Everyone in a meeting rates everyone else’s opinions (or predictions) using a numerical scale. Radical Transparency and the Dot Collectorĭalio encourages “radical transparency” - everyone at his company, including new hires fresh out of college, are given many opportunities to voice their opinions and even to rate his performance. And it looks a lot like the Wisdom of the Crowd. Three years ago, in a TED talk, he gave the public a remarkable view into one of the key factors behind Bridgewater’s success. He’s the successful founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s foremost hedge funds.ĭalio has said that in order to be an effective investor and a successful entrepreneur, you need to be able to “bet against the consensus and be right.” You may have heard of billionaire Ray Dalio. The “Secret Sauce” Behind a Hedge Fund’s Success Also: e ach participant must arrive at their guess independently from other participants. T o be accurate, the Wisdom of the Crowd theory requires the polled crowd to be as diverse as possible. Each person has unique skills, expertise, and thoughts - combining all that expertise together can lead to the most accurate solution to a given problem.įor example, you might poll everyone in your office about the number of jelly beans in a jar, then use the average as your own guess. ![]() The main premise is that a collective is smarter and more accurate than any one person. Here’s how the Wisdom of the Crowd works: The successful location of the USS Scorpion opened up new possibilities not just for locating missing subs, but forecasting stock market performance, the winner of the World Series, and much more. While the individual guesses were extremely varied, the sub was founded exactly 222 yards from the “average” of the group’s many guesses. He asked them to guess what happened to the sub, how fast it was traveling, how fast it descended, where it was now, and so on.Ĭraven then used everyone’s individual guesses to arrive at a sort of average (using a mathematical formula called Bayes’ theorem ) of the sub’s current location. He brought together many individuals from a variety of backgrounds, from salvagers to professors. Typically, any data available about a missing sub would be given to several experts who would make a prediction based on their unique skill set - whether they were experts about weather patterns, water currents, or the submarines themselves. Locating the sub wasn’t accomplished simply by scouring thousands of miles of the seafloor but rather by combining the “best guesses” of several experts from vastly different fields. What may be most interesting about the sub’s loss, however, is how it was located. ![]() The official reports do not assign a specific cause to the sub’s loss, even to this day. The sub was ultimately located on October 31st, 1968, nearly 400 miles south of the Azores archipelago of Portugal. Did the sub sink due to a faulty torpedo? A malfunctioning trash disposal unit? Or was the sub’s loss the result of escalating Cold War tensions between the Soviet Union and the United States? The Wisdom of the Crowd - The Discovery of the Missing USS Scorpion Over the years, the cause of the USS Scorpion’s loss has left family and historians alike puzzled. These issues led the crew to nickname the Scorpion the USS Scrapiron, an ode to the steel-hulled sub’s persistent mechanical issues. Other issues the sub suffered from included unresolved hydraulic problems and a possible defective torpedo. These included a replacement trash disposal unit latch, emergency sea-water shutoff valves, and emergency blow system. When the USS Scorpion and her crew departed Norfolk, the sub had more than 100 open work orders for fixes that needed to be performed. Possible Causes of the Loss of USS Scorpion AKA USS Scrapiron
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